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Abstract The Southern Ocean is covered by a large amount of clouds with high cloud albedo. However, as reported by previous climate model intercomparison projects, underestimated cloudiness and overestimated absorption of solar radiation (ASR) over the Southern Ocean lead to substantial biases in climate sensitivity. The present study revisits this long-standing issue and explores the uncertainty sources in the latest CMIP6 models. We employ 10-year satellite observations to evaluate cloud radiative effect (CRE) and cloud physical properties in five CMIP6 models that provide comprehensive output of cloud, radiation, and aerosol. The simulated longwave, shortwave, and net CRE at the top of atmosphere in CMIP6 are comparable with the CERES satellite observations. Total cloud fraction (CF) is also reasonably simulated in CMIP6, but the comparison of liquid cloud fraction (LCF) reveals marked biases in spatial pattern and seasonal variations. The discrepancies between the CMIP6 models and the MODIS satellite observations become even larger in other cloud macro- and micro-physical properties, including liquid water path (LWP), cloud optical depth (COD), and cloud effective radius, as well as aerosol optical depth (AOD). However, the large underestimation of both LWP and cloud effective radius (regional means ∼20% and 11%, respectively) results in relatively smaller bias in COD, and the impacts of the biases in COD and LCF also cancel out with each other, leaving CRE and ASR reasonably predicted in CMIP6. An error estimation framework is employed, and the different signs of the sensitivity errors and biases from CF and LWP corroborate the notions that there are compensating errors in the modeled shortwave CRE. Further correlation analyses of the geospatial patterns reveal that CF is the most relevant factor in determining CRE in observations, while the modeled CRE is too sensitive to LWP and COD. The relationships between cloud effective radius, LWP, and COD are also analyzed to explore the possible uncertainty sources in different models. Our study calls for more rigorous calibration of detailed cloud physical properties for future climate model development and climate projection. 

Abstract. Intense tropical cyclones (TCs) can cause catastrophic damage to coastal regions after landfall. Recent studies have linked the devastation associated with TCs to climate change, which induces favorable conditions, such as increasing sea-surface temperature, to supercharge storms. Meanwhile, environmental factors, such as atmospheric aerosols, also impact the development and intensity of TCs, but their effects remain poorly understood, particularly coupled with ocean dynamics. Here, we quantitatively assess the aerosol microphysical effects and aerosol-modified ocean feedbacks during Hurricane Katrina using a cloud-resolving atmosphere–ocean coupled model: Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) in conjunction with the Regional Ocean Model System (ROMS). Our model simulations reveal that an enhanced storm destructive power, as reflected by larger integrated kinetic energy, heavier precipitation, and higher sea-level rise, is linked to the combined effects of aerosols and ocean feedbacks. These effects further result in an expansion of the storm circulation with a reduced intensity because of a decreasing moist static energy supply and enhancing vorticity Rossby wave outward propagation. Both accumulated precipitation and storm surge are enhanced during the mature stage of the TC with elevated aerosol concentrations, implying exacerbated flood damage over the polluted coastal region. The ocean feedback following the aerosol microphysical effects tends to mitigate the vertical mixing cooling in the ocean mixing layer and offsets the aerosol-induced storm weakening by enhancing cloud and precipitation near the eyewall region. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the effects of aerosol microphysics and ocean-coupling feedbacks to improve the forecast of TC destructiveness, particularly near the heavily polluted coastal regions along the Gulf of Mexico. 

Abstract Saharan dust exerts profound impacts on the genesis and intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs). Such impacts on various stages of the TCs have yet to be explored. In this study, we utilize the Cloud‐Resolving weather research and forecasting model (WRF) to investigate the relative importance of the microphysical and radiative effects of dust on two hurricanes (Earl and Danielle) at different life stages under similar dynamical conditions in 2010. Both TCs were embedded in a dusty environment throughout their lifetime. A new dust ice nucleation scheme was implemented into the aerosol‐aware Texas A&M University two‐moment microphysical scheme in WRF. Moreover, the dust radiative effect was included in the Goddard Shortwave Scheme of WRF. Our sensitivity experiments show that the radiative effect of dust (DRAD) amplified the mid‐level ridge in the Central Atlantic Ocean through temperature perturbation, changing the tracks of Danielle and Earl. Further analyses reveal an early shift of Danielle's maximum intensity for 12 hours but a significantly suppressed Earl in DRAD. In addition, the microphysical effect of dust had little impact on the large‐scale dynamical fields and storm tracks. The inclusion of dust as ice nucleation particles results in more variations in the intensity of Danielle and Earl than in other scenarios. This is owing to the higher maximum diabatic heating rate in the rainband region that perturbs the size of the TC. This study shows the dominant dust radiative effects on both intensity and track of the storm. In addition, there is evidence that dust suppresses the early stage TC but provides favorable conditions for matured TC. Both findings have profound implications for hurricane forecast and address the importance of accounting for detailed cloud microphysics and aerosol‐TC interactions in the operational forecasting models.